Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb372381c7f61fddc7a898a38c5745897422f456a656d7e0ca62801cfea4d95d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 408.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 303.29$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 272.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.51 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 57c | 174.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 165.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 50c | 162.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 161.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 31c | 159.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 29c | 155.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.55 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 72c | 145.67$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 21c | 142.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 137.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 24c | 134.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 39c | 113.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 101.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 92.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 24c | 87.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 20c | 77.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…1e87backed Yes | 70c | 59.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 58.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 56.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 55.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 55.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed Yes | 19c | 53.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 25c | 48.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 44.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 42.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 42.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed Yes | 74c | 39.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 31.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 79c | 30.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 56c | 30.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 74c | 29.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 77c | 28.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 80c | 27.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 69c | 24.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked No | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 77c | 20.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…a530backed Yes | 71c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 75c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 77c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 17.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 77c | 16.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 74c | 16.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed No | 76c | 16.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 77c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed No | 75c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.