Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbec2391de6103b686b0e25cf695e3f5635a2283d71a1df641ab3a0c73679b7b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 4c | 655.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked No | 39c | 351.05$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.76 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 59c | 349.43$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 53c | 301.49$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.84 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 14c | 260$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 15c | 233$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.05 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…f83bbacked No | 39c | 181.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 17c | 159.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 151.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 7c | 146.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 27c | 136.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 20c | 115.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 78c | 105.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 27c | 98.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 42c | 95.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 93.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 73c | 87.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 38c | 82.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 51c | 78.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 67c | 74.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 18c | 74.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 68.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 28c | 67.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 65.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 63.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 53c | 54.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 57c | 54.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 53.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 50.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 70c | 41.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 77c | 39.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 52c | 32.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 53c | 32.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 23.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.