Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbefa2175c7b4ef9421062d600cdc07b0810770f18f36b37cb59a65d7ed5b1c0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,029 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,020$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.31 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 27c | 951$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.72 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 417.11$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.83 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 76c | 270.97$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 38c | 259.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 25c | 206.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 150.14$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2c…6ef3backed Under | 75c | 146.91$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…27fdbacked Over | 25c | 146.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 75c | 134.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 124.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Over | 36c | 56.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 75c | 52.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 62c | 49.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 64c | 48.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 65c | 47.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ee…2aedbacked Under | 80c | 40.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 31.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 62c | 27.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 75c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)Portland Timbers won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.