Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf081d326b9af46175aad26b9e20b4c61e0622c637a4a629fb1a420aaee1e24a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 1,751$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 8c | 1,412$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 7c | 618.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 575.96$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.27 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 11c | 478.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 342.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 296.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 34c | 296.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 277.23$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 10c | 228.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 9c | 226.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 35c | 214.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 187.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 175.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 156.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 40c | 150.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 144.31$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 39c | 129.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 127.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 126.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 38c | 122.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 119.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 113.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 66c | 105.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 97.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 96.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked Yes | 33c | 92.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…f5dcbacked Yes | 29c | 92.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 89.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…371abacked Yes | 32c | 74.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 72.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 69.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 65.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 38c | 64.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 75c | 63.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 63c | 58.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 37c | 57.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 56.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 38c | 54.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 52.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5c…7cf7backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 66c | 51.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 76c | 49.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed No | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…913dbacked Yes | 38c | 39.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4077…88e0backed Yes | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…fdc5backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 31.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…0f31backed Yes | 38c | 31.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 62c | 26.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…bd7fbacked No | 62c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 79c | 23.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 62c | 21.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 74c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed No | 80c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 69c | 17.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 66c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.