Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c1174fb179e8e20cd981b9d5f84d08cc78665965283b87b64224ef2316d502
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 50c | 736.48$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.69 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 16c | 690.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 68c | 424.23$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…b3b0backed Yes | 49c | 400$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 8c | 375$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 343.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 340.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 329.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 50c | 263.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.86 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 29c | 251.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 6c | 250.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 55c | 244.43$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 44c | 229.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.28 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 222.21$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 221.69$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 12c | 212.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 211.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 199.94$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 51c | 193$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 57c | 191.09$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 188.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 33c | 184.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 173.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 31c | 169.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 44c | 166.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 159.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 35c | 154.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.87 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 145.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 142.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 54c | 136.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 15c | 135.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 47c | 126.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 125.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…914bbacked Yes | 50c | 122.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 121.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 50c | 121.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 30c | 121$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 119.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…55b7backed Yes | 38c | 118.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…f5dcbacked Yes | 45c | 102.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 45c | 100.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 50c | 99.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 96.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 36c | 93.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 90.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 13c | 85.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 40c | 80.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 55c | 72.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 69.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 46c | 69.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 54c | 68.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 37c | 66.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 37c | 66.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed Yes | 45c | 65.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 53c | 65.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 33c | 64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 58c | 63.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 61.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 59.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 33c | 57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 47c | 54.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 44c | 54.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 41c | 51.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…b0ffbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bc…37d1backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…7488backed Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 45.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 64c | 45.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…055fbacked Yes | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 44.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…371abacked Yes | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 41c | 43.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4077…88e0backed Yes | 29c | 40.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 46c | 40.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…913dbacked Yes | 40c | 40.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 59c | 38.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked Yes | 44c | 33.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 75c | 33.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…4a77backed Yes | 50c | 32.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.