Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9453ab60ffea0f2e1c3ccdb7b1e660e329561df99de8d31ab269c57551170661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb13…3bb3backed Yes | 0c | 11,455$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 0c | 10,115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 18c | 1,150$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.39 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 984.94$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 14c | 886.62$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 72c | 501.96$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.07 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 41c | 461.17$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.33 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 21c | 408.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 380.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 16c | 365.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 38c | 363.14$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 326.01$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 21c | 313.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 297.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 4c | 278$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 20c | 270$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 14c | 253.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 229.45$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 12c | 225.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 225.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 206.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 203.55$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 194.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 31c | 190$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 76c | 186.49$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 177.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 175.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 58c | 165.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 157.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 69c | 156.64$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 74c | 153.4$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 29c | 137.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 22c | 136.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…f5dcbacked Yes | 22c | 134.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 15c | 132.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 23c | 131.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 27c | 128.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 17c | 125.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 32c | 123.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 119.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 10c | 119$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 111.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf2…18e5backed Yes | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 102.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 35c | 100.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 98.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 15c | 88.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed Yes | 27c | 81.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 42c | 78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 16c | 77.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…7fcdbacked Yes | 25c | 75.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 28c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…df07backed Yes | 45c | 66.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 17c | 61.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 21c | 61.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 17c | 60.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 59.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 43c | 57.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ce7dbacked Yes | 52c | 57.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771c…809abacked No | 72c | 55.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 24c | 54.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…055fbacked Yes | 19c | 51.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 78c | 51.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…55b7backed Yes | 41c | 49.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…7488backed Yes | 48c | 46.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 69c | 46.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 28c | 42.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 34c | 42.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 31c | 42.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 34c | 41.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…dc17backed Yes | 28c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 58c | 37.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 66c | 35.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…3923backed No | 68c | 34.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked Yes | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 64c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 78c | 26.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 22.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 20.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 68c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 65c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 78c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 70c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…979ebacked No | 67c | 18.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…f55bbacked No | 77c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 70c | 14.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cab…7ff6backed No | 80c | 13.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.