TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,328

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,086 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb13…3bb3backed Yes0c11,455$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes0c10,115$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes18c1,150$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.3992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c984.94$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.474,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes14c886.62$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No72c501.96$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.0722450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes41c461.17$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3310843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes21c408.13$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3643238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c380.7$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.052,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes16c365.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes38c363.14$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.255940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No78c326.01$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.083,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes21c313.63$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4517838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes10c297.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.357,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes4c278$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes20c270$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.051,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4464…b76dbacked Yes14c253.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.328626.7%23 W · 63 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No66c229.45$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes12c225.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3638515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c225.22$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.481,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes28c206.79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.811,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No65c203.55$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.761,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.591,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c194.88$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.512,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes31c190$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.91729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No76c186.49$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8410163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes27c177.52$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9273927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes28c175.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2670133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No58c165.13$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1690040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes8c157.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No69c156.64$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9953525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No74c153.4$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.512638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe27a…06f8backed Yes29c137.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.471931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes22c136.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3543021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56be…f5dcbacked Yes22c134.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.19850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2702…06bebacked Yes15c132.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.119328%26 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid+49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes23c131.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4630813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes39c130$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.630144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes27c128.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3531943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes17c125.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8949038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1add…a268backed Yes32c123.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No68c119.98$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.334,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes10c119$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.92729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c111.48$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf2…18e5backed Yes43c105$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.651612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-52.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes15c102.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.889,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes35c100.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1125344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes17c98.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.439,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes15c88.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1329835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc60…c377backed Yes27c81.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.793240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes42c78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7517536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes16c77.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3518837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf083…7fcdbacked Yes25c75.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes28c73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1914637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0638…df07backed Yes45c66.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb6…337fbacked Yes17c61.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.444337.2%16 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes21c61.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5326434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31dc…ce99backed Yes17c60.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4310427.9%29 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa530…88f6backed Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.48531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c59.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.478663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes43c57.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9324442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe622…ce7dbacked Yes52c57.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x771c…809abacked No72c55.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes24c54.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19dc…055fbacked Yes19c51.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc3e…cefdbacked No78c51.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.335667.9%38 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x717f…3fb1backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163342.4%14 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked No70c49.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1512068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0576…55b7backed Yes41c49.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0514…7488backed Yes48c46.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+141.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9b…492abacked No69c46.76$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.517365.3%113 W · 60 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef12…8e61backed Yes28c42.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.034231%13 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes34c42.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6311146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes31c42.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9532352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc82c…c866backed Yes34c41.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.267639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8dc…dc17backed Yes28c41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1425038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No58c37.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6929751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No66c35.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.851,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecd…3923backed No68c34.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.172213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-80%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes41c32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1228649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.158650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked Yes45c29.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3611859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc92…b4d7backed No64c29.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4710360.2%62 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No78c26.36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.855855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd082…b5e8backed Yes52c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.965556.4%31 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No72c22.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3882562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No71c20.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.912,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed No68c20.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3311950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No76c19.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7433373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x142a…a44abacked No65c19.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7417945.3%81 W · 98 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc40b…dc70backed No78c19.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.345246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed No70c18.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.78252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No71c18.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5043…979ebacked No67c18.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc32…f55bbacked No77c17.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…1480backed No70c14.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5210518.1%19 W · 86 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7cab…7ff6backed No80c13.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.71742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick68cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.