Fifa International · resolved market
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf1ca81b3d5fb68b8233933566318da734e5e0b6d8203ff551e7b4a0d45524b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…2cbfbacked No | 1c | 1,390$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8100…53a9backed Yes | 18c | 543.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.47 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Yes | 70c | 298.3$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 132 | 68.2%90 W · 42 L | +20.0wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 78c | 246.5$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.18 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Yes | 24c | 210.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.8 | 303 | 21.5%65 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 206$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 25c | 154.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Yes | 24c | 126.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 206 | 30.6%63 W · 143 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…2133backed Yes | 25c | 120.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 75c | 100.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 256 | 39.1%100 W · 156 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 18c | 96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 226 | 23.5%53 W · 173 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…9176backed No | 74c | 87.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 151 | 77.5%117 W · 34 L | +13.1wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 51c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed No | 75c | 72.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 145 | 79.3%115 W · 30 L | +17.0wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 38.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goalsthis page
- Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goalsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 1+ assistsNo won
- Antonio Nusa: 1+ goalsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ assistsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ shotsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 2+ goalsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 2+ shotsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 3+ goalsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 3+ shotsYes won
- Erling Haaland: 4+ shotsYes won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shotsYes won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shotsYes won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shotsYes won
- Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shotsYes won
- Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goalsNo won
- Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shotsYes won
- Sadio Mané: 1+ assistsYes won
- Sadio Mané: 1+ goalsNo won
- Sadio Mané: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.