Erling Haaland: 3+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd63e646658c87a236e2829d4760c055235e38b5cb5eb687313c9b95904f33671

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $22,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,308 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No	72c	2,771$2,004 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$766.47	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	74c	2,090$1,544 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$546.29	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked No	66c	1,506$989 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$516.36	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed No	67c	1,500$1,005 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495	158	43%68 W · 90 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x158d…9c64backed Yes	33c	1,500$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495	134	54.5%73 W · 61 L	+6.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	5c	1,322$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6325…cfaabacked No	68c	1,014$692 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$321.52	95	55.8%53 W · 42 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	98	19.4%19 W · 79 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+146.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes	5c	1,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	1,206	50.2%606 W · 600 L	+44.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…b276backed Yes	40c	988.21$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	78	32.1%25 W · 53 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Yes	22c	897.5$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…239dbacked Yes	18c	834.89$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.09	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	72c	790.64$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.19	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79f6…8f75backed No	80c	549.59$438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.48	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No	65c	505.52$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.93	188	48.9%92 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e8…8f37backed Yes	21c	483.17$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7544…ea2dbacked Yes	29c	345.54$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	116	34.5%40 W · 76 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c44…ce0cbacked Yes	41c	337.85$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	45	33.3%15 W · 30 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…2cbfbacked Yes	26c	308.25$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e6d…08a8backed Yes	36c	279.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	125	27.2%34 W · 91 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x242f…b794backed Yes	8c	262.63$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.07	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaebb…c29abacked Yes	40c	252.53$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4eb…7ba3backed Yes	21c	240.46$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	65	33.8%22 W · 43 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad3d…24e5backed Yes	33c	227.72$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.66	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbeab…ee09backed Yes	30c	222.48$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.28	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x050d…e34bbacked Yes	40c	203.26$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.49	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d0…3df9backed Yes	35c	200$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	31c	198.5$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.57	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked Yes	39c	192.31$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	226	43.4%98 W · 128 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6f…cb64backed Yes	35c	190$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4753…41adbacked No	75c	168.13$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.2	59	69.5%41 W · 18 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	64cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6d5…658bbacked Yes	16c	159.2$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	153	36.6%56 W · 97 L	+12.2wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85a4…c68cbacked Yes	7c	157.43$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c8…1e91backed Yes	34c	148.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	70	28.6%20 W · 50 L	-7.0wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6592…2767backed Yes	9c	144.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0b…612abacked Yes	36c	138.89$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	72	19.4%14 W · 58 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9041…ddbabacked Yes	34c	127.97$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.51	113	38.9%44 W · 69 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0326…3daebacked Yes	45c	108.84$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.7	190	31.6%60 W · 130 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes	19c	99.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	144	27.8%40 W · 104 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	75c	84.45$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.31	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88fc…eda8backed Yes	30c	83.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	71	40.8%29 W · 42 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53f4…1837backed Yes	31c	81.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fda…7c1fbacked Yes	34c	79.41$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes	22c	78.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed No	66c	75.53$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.53	53	86.8%46 W · 7 L	+9.6wins	+0.18per pick	69cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8e41…cbabbacked Yes	40c	75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bb…69b8backed Yes	41c	72.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	70	48.6%34 W · 36 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x865f…c770backed Yes	35c	71.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e8…5289backed Yes	30c	66.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdf…d326backed Yes	24c	56.83$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.81	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	47cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1c…02eabacked No	66c	52.95$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.95	66	71.2%47 W · 19 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a60…a744backed Yes	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f4…12dabacked No	66c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.95	77	66.2%51 W · 26 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c0a…d2b7backed Yes	38c	49.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.95	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9583…fa5dbacked Yes	41c	48.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	141	48.2%68 W · 73 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x300c…333fbacked No	67c	45.05$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.05	146	52.7%77 W · 69 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc2…b720backed Yes	33c	45.05$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf341…9bd8backed Yes	35c	42.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	164	54.3%89 W · 75 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafe0…acf3backed Yes	41c	38.53$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	38cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x398b…0489backed Yes	30c	35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	36cpaid	+82.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80e…cad8backed Yes	55c	31.16$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	40	35%14 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x605a…bf3bbacked Yes	39c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	200	36.5%73 W · 127 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64fe…3586backed Yes	34c	30$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	+4.5wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1621…85d5backed Yes	41c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a0…bc97backed Yes	37c	27.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	67	37.3%25 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fed…eddebacked Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No	79c	23.4$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.91	218	58.7%128 W · 90 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f3…975cbacked No	61c	17$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.59	68	30.9%21 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Erling Haaland: 3+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event