Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-12-31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf39c96c41c581e50258a80d10efc69d0599f74a5268de25da124b9d6604c416

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $54,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $59,814

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,454 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes	11c	2,500$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.99	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes	14c	2,343$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.49	107	48.6%52 W · 55 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes	3c	2,195$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.53	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes	11c	2,111$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.54	359	42.9%154 W · 205 L	-16.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-24%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.99	96	36.5%35 W · 61 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Yes	11c	1,500$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	292	32.9%96 W · 196 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes	10c	1,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	224	21%47 W · 177 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes	14c	1,170$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.29	203	22.7%46 W · 157 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Yes	10c	1,129$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.87	59	30.5%18 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ce…798fbacked Yes	11c	1,009$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	142	46.5%66 W · 76 L	-7.1wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Yes	13c	800$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88de…1091backed Yes	16c	700.43$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.07	210	16.7%35 W · 175 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6512…78c9backed Yes	3c	666.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a23…97a7backed Yes	13c	623.42$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.02	70	30%21 W · 49 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71a8…22f0backed Yes	12c	565.83$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Yes	12c	469$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.33	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes	13c	440.96$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.95	346	30.1%104 W · 242 L	-21.8wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed Yes	17c	386.97$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.79	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes	11c	349.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.75	559	42.4%237 W · 322 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Yes	5c	299$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	14c	262$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes	13c	166.54$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.65	760	48.7%370 W · 390 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes	17c	149.63$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.44	396	21%83 W · 313 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0613…5204backed Yes	13c	137.38$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	44	11.4%5 W · 39 L	-6.8wins	-0.16per pick	27cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes	17c	130$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	673	54.7%368 W · 305 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	17c	118$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes	12c	114.78$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	89	60.7%54 W · 35 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01af…f34ebacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cff…15d1backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	112	42.9%48 W · 64 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c42…6e3bbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-74%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38f8…95c0backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	88	38.6%34 W · 54 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	96.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ee…31cabacked Yes	12c	95.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Yes	15c	81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b39…c6babacked Yes	17c	63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-12-31?this page
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-31?Yes won
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Algeria end in a draw?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-12-31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event