Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf671446d859458c2bd404f504be43bbd33953f3ba3c21edfd2cf88c253b3ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e92…b414backed No | 0c | 22,503$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f00…c806backed No | 1c | 1,111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 1c | 1,081$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 77c | 669.92$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.89 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 585.56$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 449.09$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 351.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 23c | 310.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 257.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…c51bbacked Yes | 42c | 246.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 6c | 211.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 62c | 191.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 158.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked Yes | 18c | 145.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 26c | 144.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 140.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 12c | 137.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 130.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 102.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 31c | 100.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 96.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 17c | 90.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 22c | 86.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 23c | 78.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 76.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 16c | 73.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…9fbdbacked Yes | 64c | 72.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed Yes | 15c | 71.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed Yes | 42c | 69.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 65.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 41c | 60.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 38c | 53.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 53.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 52.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 45c | 49.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…409cbacked Yes | 31c | 43.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +394.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed Yes | 46c | 42.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 54c | 39.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 60c | 38.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 37c | 34.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 65c | 28.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 42c | 28.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 26.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 48c | 25.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 54c | 20.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 78c | 16.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 12.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.