Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6c7872f9f4d7f3a90979be727d6c9949301e975db5b8bf772927dd5353d9cfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 590.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 394.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 78c | 361.41$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 313.42$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 304.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 250.01$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 70c | 213.68$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 210.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 11c | 210.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 32c | 191.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 166.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 162.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 69c | 141.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 119.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 109.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 97.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 40c | 96.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 91.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 82.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 35c | 75.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 29c | 68.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 64.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 60.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 34c | 57.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 32c | 49.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 73c | 47.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 45.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 32c | 43.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 30c | 41.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 41.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 31c | 39.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 37c | 38.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 74c | 36.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 68c | 28.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 69c | 21.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 68c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 16.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 74c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.