Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x528a3633a69c38357180b856c31d92d865400fce64610c0cbe734bcec1d1c7d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e92…b414backed Yes | 0c | 18,002$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 566.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 416.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…c51bbacked Yes | 44c | 236.72$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 222.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 188.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 185.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 61c | 176.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 11c | 173.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 172.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 172.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 165.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 59c | 137.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 68c | 131.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 35c | 129.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 124.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 77c | 118.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 33c | 111.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 42c | 104.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 43c | 99.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 11c | 99.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 65c | 96.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 96.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 74c | 90.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 89.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 36c | 87.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 14c | 84.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 70c | 83.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 82.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 68c | 81.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 79.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 74.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 69.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed Yes | 42c | 67.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 73c | 60.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 58.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 32c | 54.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 37c | 53.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 44c | 52.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 49.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 48.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 48.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 38c | 46.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 38c | 44.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 62c | 40.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed Yes | 37c | 38.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 38.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 37.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c0…267cbacked No | 59c | 37.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…e39abacked Yes | 43c | 36.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 69c | 33.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 36c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…6969backed Yes | 42c | 31.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 45c | 31.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed No | 64c | 30.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 71c | 29.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8c…7794backed No | 65c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 59c | 22.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 65c | 22.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 60c | 20.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 59c | 20.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 72c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.