Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf6b7ff272c85e0f398e71b14b7e76e9ce96ccff616f2f5c80bf6bfdd669f4e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 0c | 16,190$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…d9bdbacked Yes | 78c | 1,534$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 20c | 915.39$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.4 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 1c | 761.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 25c | 523.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 70c | 498.7$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.68 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 8c | 468$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 3c | 392.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 79c | 387.46$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 363.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 269.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 62c | 207.94$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…7091backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 194.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa257…9233backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…b590backed Yes | 24c | 123.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798d…b91fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 37c | 99.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 19c | 95.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 73c | 93.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 70.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 55.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 30c | 54.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 49.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed Yes | 70c | 46.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 46.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…e3c6backed Yes | 49c | 39.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 43c | 27.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 69c | 21.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 17.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.