Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e921c0b8ebaa351a8b05be0d4a22b71b926a4ed1d0ba6d53b64e24902b8910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 0c | 80,679$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 899.89$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 76c | 799.17$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.54 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 19c | 372.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.96 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 72c | 370.9$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.57 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 15c | 357.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.44 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 9c | 222.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.92 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 53c | 222.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 25c | 212.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 197.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 157.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 68c | 118.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed No | 46c | 109.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…950fbacked Yes | 80c | 105.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 16c | 103.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 71c | 100.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 13c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 92.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 16c | 91.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 23c | 91.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 67c | 86.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 83.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed No | 67c | 72.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 70.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 68.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…7864backed No | 25c | 64.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 63c | 64.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 72c | 62.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x798d…b91fbacked Yes | 63c | 57.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 68c | 54.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 54.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 65c | 49.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 30c | 48.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 71c | 47.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 32c | 46.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 46.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc25e…5d00backed Yes | 35c | 43.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 73c | 41.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 57c | 40.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…56ecbacked Yes | 59c | 35.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 55c | 35.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 34.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…da7cbacked No | 63c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 29.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked No | 65c | 29.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 28.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 23.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 61c | 19.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed No | 79c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.