Ligue 1 · resolved market
Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf9b6307926a0d2d3ce39f24655eb4fa12322244728a5d2b1dcf4b5ebbb5ad3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 18c | 2,700$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,214.41 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 1,941$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.61 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 607.09$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 57c | 400.09$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 5c | 231.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 188 | 47.9%90 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…481bbacked Over | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 126$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.26 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 27c | 119.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 21c | 113.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 18c | 105.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 64c | 78.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 17c | 73.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 73c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 77c | 64.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…6600backed Over | 24c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c8…5301backed Under | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5this page
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 0.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5Over won
- Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)Racing Club de Lens won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)Racing Club de Lens won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5)Racing Club de Lens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.