Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs NPC's IRL (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfa6c610539de1c65de1d3b288cad954aab3d46e319e20044f71e9c482fe63eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof VP.Prodigy, NPC's IRL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa340…409bbacked NPC's IRL | 15c | 3,234$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3d64backed VP.Prodigy | 67c | 2,408$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e88…5ddabacked VP.Prodigy | 63c | 1,013$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.23 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +11.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked NPC's IRL | 67c | 699.55$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.59 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked NPC's IRL | 39c | 591.81$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.15 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…439cbacked NPC's IRL | 27c | 538.1$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked VP.Prodigy | 36c | 518.81$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.06 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed VP.Prodigy | 64c | 479.82$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.42 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked VP.Prodigy | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed NPC's IRL | 39c | 385.03$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.56 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed NPC's IRL | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked VP.Prodigy | 55c | 272.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.44 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed NPC's IRL | 18c | 223.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed NPC's IRL | 64c | 170$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed NPC's IRL | 26c | 149.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…255bbacked NPC's IRL | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…51c2backed NPC's IRL | 54c | 121.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed NPC's IRL | 14c | 119.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked NPC's IRL | 28c | 100.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 40c | 78.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed VP.Prodigy | 52c | 77.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed VP.Prodigy | 54c | 73.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed NPC's IRL | 33c | 66.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed VP.Prodigy | 54c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed VP.Prodigy | 56c | 54.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked NPC's IRL | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9cf6backed VP.Prodigy | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…4883backed NPC's IRL | 65c | 29.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6908…752abacked NPC's IRL | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed NPC's IRL | 45c | 24.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x146f…9561backed NPC's IRL | 63c | 16.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb324…e5bebacked VP.Prodigy | 73c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs NPC's IRL (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs NPC's IRL - Game 1 WinnerNPC's IRL won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs NPC's IRL - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.