Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfa9d68562b624bf14550b73722884abcfed9c0ce0d453e2a24e026ce2f0f2e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 1c | 3,789$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 417.43$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 7c | 356.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 287.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695e…7d72backed Yes | 36c | 220$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8e…cc2bbacked Yes | 36c | 202.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 163.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 64c | 155.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 47c | 136.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 130.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 116.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 87.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 36c | 81.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 76.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 39c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 46c | 55.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 56c | 52.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 51c | 51.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…d5a2backed No | 55c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 48c | 46.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 45.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 44.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 42.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…6674backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 44c | 38.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed Yes | 56c | 37.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 64c | 33.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 44c | 32.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 41c | 32.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 55c | 26.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 47c | 25.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 22.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 14.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.