CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfc319dee446956804f98a7e1cb4fd3a5ed31a5fd27702db1c4bee4f905bc462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Over | 47c | 2,150$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -15.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 287 | 38%109 W · 178 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Under | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 537 | 46.2%248 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 55c | 417.95$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.17 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Under | 56c | 380.52$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.08 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Under | 53c | 316.14$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.58 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 34c | 300$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 249 | 39.8%99 W · 150 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e62…9121backed Over | 37c | 296.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 279.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.04 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Over | 47c | 222$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 333 | 54.4%181 W · 152 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 54c | 210$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Over | 30c | 186$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 368 | 45.9%169 W · 199 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Under | 61c | 118.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Over | 37c | 114.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 36c | 102.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 51c | 86.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Over | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 133 | 24.8%33 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…6758backed Over | 57c | 69.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over | 26c | 68.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Under | 66c | 64.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | -33.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Over | 38c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 41c | 56.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 52c | 52.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bd…e58dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b7…9581backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Under | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 452 | 38.3%173 W · 279 L | -29.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 34c | 31.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 44c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 492 | 42.1%207 W · 285 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Under | 44c | 23.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Over | 51c | 19.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 587 | 45%264 W · 323 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group StageHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic - Map 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)Heroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.