CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c1778496f4d714b38226ee9cbb0bf74df0278de66507cb34d887694b0baf2c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Aurora Gaming, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora Gaming | 38c | 15,411$5,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,856.03 | 760 | 58%441 W · 319 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…5eeebacked Heroic | 61c | 11,024$6,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,259.58 | 162 | 45.1%73 W · 89 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Heroic | 62c | 5,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a6…ab62backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 2,785$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Heroic | 62c | 1,940$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.2 | 602 | 48.7%293 W · 309 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Heroic | 64c | 1,700$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.99 | 267 | 43.1%115 W · 152 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Heroic | 62c | 1,681$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.07 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 1,528$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…77c4backed Heroic | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 188 | 46.3%87 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed Aurora Gaming | 40c | 1,264$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Heroic | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 287 | 38%109 W · 178 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Heroic | 62c | 887.99$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.44 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…b3a2backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 701.56$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.56 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Aurora Gaming | 38c | 650.09$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.03 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Aurora Gaming | 41c | 624.49$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.84 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4189backed Heroic | 63c | 617.62$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.52 | 334 | 52.1%174 W · 160 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Heroic | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heroic | 59c | 542.73$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89eb…cff9backed Aurora Gaming | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 364 | 50.3%183 W · 181 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Aurora Gaming | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 314 | 51.6%162 W · 152 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Heroic | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Heroic | 63c | 405.38$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.55 | 249 | 39.8%99 W · 150 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb452…d901backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 336.61$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…4f26backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 307.72$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.86 | 352 | 36.4%128 W · 224 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 428 | 45.6%195 W · 233 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 269.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 213.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…e762backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 198.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 189.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 386 | 50.8%196 W · 190 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c5…2862backed Heroic | 64c | 188.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 181.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 419 | 38.9%163 W · 256 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Heroic | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…7800backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 154.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Aurora Gaming | 40c | 148$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 142.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 406 | 39.4%160 W · 246 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…6a7ebacked Aurora Gaming | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Aurora Gaming | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…1865backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Aurora Gaming | 37c | 108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Aurora Gaming | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 102.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 635 | 41.1%261 W · 374 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…c150backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 89.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050c…b15fbacked Aurora Gaming | 37c | 82.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…6529backed Aurora Gaming | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…ee0bbacked Aurora Gaming | 38c | 74.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 139 | 58.3%81 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…7703backed Aurora Gaming | 45c | 72.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 416 | 45.9%191 W · 225 L | +22.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6347…3047backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 69.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Heroic | 62c | 68.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 445 | 52.4%233 W · 212 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…54fcbacked Heroic | 63c | 63.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…f39abacked Aurora Gaming | 39c | 63.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 377 | 57.8%218 W · 159 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Heroic | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…67b3backed Aurora Gaming | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 248 | 42.7%106 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Heroic | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 41.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 500 | 56.6%283 W · 217 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Heroic | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Heroic | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Heroic | 63c | 34.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…6acebacked Heroic | 63c | 33.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Heroic | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Heroic | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…57c7backed Heroic | 63c | 19.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group StageHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic - Map 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.