Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfccd93645dc3425f84e457438ebb73c18e05838289a696fc7413fbee2c5c762
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 70c | 363.38$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 349.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 168.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 160.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 43c | 157.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 71c | 153.61$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 138.81$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 135.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 119.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 36c | 116.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 94.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 28c | 91.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 73c | 90.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 87.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 28c | 83.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 76c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 69.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 26c | 68.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 67.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 29c | 65.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…d3bebacked Yes | 78c | 64.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 73c | 54.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 52.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 52.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 73c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 50.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8572backed Yes | 68c | 49.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 45.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 37.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 35c | 35.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 69c | 34.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 29.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 40c | 25.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 80c | 24.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 24.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 57c | 24.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 73c | 22.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 22.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 19.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 76c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.