TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,337

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,916 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tampa Bay Rays45c2,134$960 inWon+$1,173.591,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles55c2,122$1,167 inLost-$1,166.9511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles70c775.2$545 inLost-$545.132,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles68c593.57$404 inLost-$403.8410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Tampa Bay Rays30c333.33$100 inWon+$233.3312061.7%74 W · 46 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays67c314$210 inWon+$103.668,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Baltimore Orioles29c276.57$81 inLost-$81.4599624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Tampa Bay Rays29c203.86$59 inWon+$144.742,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays34c203$69 inWon+$134.113,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays37c176.83$65 inWon+$111.4312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Baltimore Orioles16c130.29$21 inLost-$21.0667742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays41c92.79$38 inWon+$54.945,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays30c80.5$24 inWon+$56.354,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Baltimore Orioles15c72$11 inLost-$10.849942.9%214 W · 285 L-31.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays30c70$21 inWon+$4968942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Tampa Bay Rays30c50.51$15 inWon+$35.3694648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Baltimore Orioles61c49.16$30 inLost-$29.999855.1%54 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays29c45.78$13 inWon+$32.53,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed Baltimore Orioles71c30.55$22 inLost-$21.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays46c27.58$13 inWon+$14.958,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles70c25.6$18 inLost-$17.924,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.