MLB · resolved market

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d8d1aed2b467d6606fe51052371eda5b34a4f4c987c3086540b11504724b3f6

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $39,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,550 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc974…b33bbacked Over	48c	6,509$3,124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,384.58	86	33.7%29 W · 57 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Over	48c	6,428$3,085 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,342.56	235	38.3%90 W · 145 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under	52c	5,046$2,624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,623.69	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16e5…6373backed Under	56c	3,662$2,051 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,050.79	86	58.1%50 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	47c	3,326$1,563 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,762.73	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under	52c	3,300$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,699.64	1,909	53.5%1,021 W · 888 L	+29.1wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under	53c	3,000$1,590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,590	1,063	48.2%512 W · 551 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	51c	2,909$1,474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,474.39	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over	73c	2,411$1,753 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$658.2	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	44c	2,277$1,002 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,274.94	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under	51c	2,143$1,095 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,095.04	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over	49c	2,071$1,015 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,056.43	390	47.4%185 W · 205 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Under	50c	1,828$914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$914	121	52.9%64 W · 57 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under	49c	1,457$721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$721.13	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over	50c	1,258$629 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$628.94	737	48.4%357 W · 380 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	52c	1,078$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.4	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Under	52c	721.36$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.11	865	48.7%421 W · 444 L	-8.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Over	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	550	52.4%288 W · 262 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	35c	458.12$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.14	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x898a…499abacked Over	48c	411.46$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.96	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e3…e736backed Over	50c	385.8$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.9	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under	22c	294.11$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.96	677	42.2%286 W · 391 L	-36.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-18%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff68…8379backed Under	7c	289.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	269	40.5%109 W · 160 L	-8.9wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over	51c	280$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.2	1,630	55.2%899 W · 731 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over	47c	274.64$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.56	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Over	48c	245$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.4	195	46.2%90 W · 105 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under	53c	220$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.6	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	21c	206.67$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.4	753	44.1%332 W · 421 L	-10.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Over	49c	206$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.06	115	50.4%58 W · 57 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	726	48.1%349 W · 377 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d1…f8c0backed Under	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	60	50%30 W · 30 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	128	45.3%58 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	32c	179.6$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.11	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Over	51c	138.65$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.94	660	56.2%371 W · 289 L	+12.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under	20c	133$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.49	499	42.9%214 W · 285 L	-31.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	52c	120$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	50c	114.45$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.49	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	49c	113.62$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.95	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8490…ac46backed Under	53c	113.21$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over	48c	109$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.68	750	49.7%373 W · 377 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	846	51.5%436 W · 410 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	577	47.7%275 W · 302 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over	55c	89.31$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.42	1,133	57.2%648 W · 485 L	+35.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	47c	81.08$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.97	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over	50c	75$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.88	272	48.5%132 W · 140 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	44c	74.05$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.82	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7268…78abbacked Under	45c	72.33$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.33	200	40%80 W · 120 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over	50c	70$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	722	47.6%344 W · 378 L	-12.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74dd…f3c5backed Over	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	112	54.5%61 W · 51 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x523c…2c05backed Over	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	130	53.1%69 W · 61 L	-11.0wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Under	54c	56.61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.77	201	56.2%113 W · 88 L	+8.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under	52c	54.82$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.51	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under	46c	53.55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.53	1,367	54.3%742 W · 625 L	+16.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	1,723	50.3%867 W · 856 L	+55.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed Over	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-6.0wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Over	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	24c	49.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	2,545	45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Under	36c	48.82$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.49	418	36.4%152 W · 266 L	-31.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5cc1…b855backed Over	44c	47.47$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.44	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under	53c	46.92$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.79	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Under	22c	45.44$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	229	49.8%114 W · 115 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Over	48c	44.57$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.18	312	54.5%170 W · 142 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over	51c	43.59$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.36	1,149	48.9%562 W · 587 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Over	60c	42.34$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.96	726	55.4%402 W · 324 L	+40.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Over	70c	41.58$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.3	2,223	55.4%1,231 W · 992 L	+73.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over	51c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Over	47c	31$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.43	404	46.5%188 W · 216 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over	49c	30.87$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.87	465	57.2%266 W · 199 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	246	46.7%115 W · 131 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x932d…8529backed Over	50c	25.64$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.82	113	46%52 W · 61 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over	80c	25.63$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.13	1,218	55.6%677 W · 541 L	+94.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc50…7fdebacked Over	48c	24.06$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.51	65	46.2%30 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under	52c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe461…c5aebacked Over	51c	23.14$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under	52c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	252	49.6%125 W · 127 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	52c	22.32$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0e…accebacked Over	52c	20.85$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.01	51	54.9%28 W · 23 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	51c	20.43$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.01	704	55%387 W · 317 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6309…1f50backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89ab…89acbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdda1…7b5ebacked Over	51c	19.8$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.7	86	51.2%44 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-5.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-7.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-8.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event