Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc030c62fdf62dd7f24971583385b285c25b943986d264cc97d50149d0cc30cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 21c | 947.02$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.39 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 14c | 600$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 547.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 542.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 439.3$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 29c | 422.72$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 340.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 325.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 311.25$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 294.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 249.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 194.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 26c | 178.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 149.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 147.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 142.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 19c | 108.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 11c | 104.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 24c | 102.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 78c | 98.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 12c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 58c | 90.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes | 14c | 87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 18c | 86.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 79.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 70.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 68.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 23c | 64.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 62.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 75c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 22c | 48.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 45.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 77c | 44.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 44.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 43.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 42.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 77c | 30.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 70c | 27.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 79c | 14.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.