Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdca116bdd53acc4cb9fcea630f3446546127a39d67a261ba08af7d65213468c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 57c | 860.54$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.63 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 78c | 525.31$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 378.57$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.26 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 345.29$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 299.08$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 66c | 286.7$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 249.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 14c | 247.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 210.24$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 184.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 177.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 21c | 172.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 172.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 167$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 162.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.68 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 58c | 157.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 155$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 147.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 145.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 45c | 140.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…6c98backed Yes | 28c | 130.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked No | 45c | 126.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed Yes | 37c | 111.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…cf5bbacked Yes | 46c | 109.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 73c | 105.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 31c | 104.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 68c | 101.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 32c | 97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 96.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 95.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 63c | 92.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 84.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 51c | 82.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 72c | 82.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 79.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 39c | 79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 76.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 76.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 37c | 73.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 68c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 23c | 64.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 34c | 64.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 61.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 72c | 60.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 78c | 60.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 60.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 80c | 57.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 33c | 57.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 38c | 56.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 25c | 56.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 46c | 56.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 31c | 51.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 47.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 54c | 46.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 43c | 46.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 71c | 45.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 39.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…3d8cbacked Yes | 77c | 38.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 37.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…5115backed Yes | 48c | 37.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 73c | 35.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 62c | 35.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…f39bbacked No | 56c | 31.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 31.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…1c51backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 31.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…6b9fbacked Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 29.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 75c | 29.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 26.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 26.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…2b17backed Yes | 79c | 26.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 25.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 24.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 24.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 65c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…f1b9backed No | 55c | 22.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 73c | 22.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ae…f93abacked Yes | 75c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 68c | 17.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.