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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,477 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes57c860.54$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.6339966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes78c525.31$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.484965.3%32 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No46c378.57$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.262,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c345.29$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.425,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c299.08$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.496,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes66c286.7$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0192028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes34c249.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.974,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No14c247.73$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.341,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No71c210.24$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.951,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c184.9$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.35,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c177.13$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No21c172.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.098,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c172.28$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No59c167$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1263757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes39c162.29$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes58c157.16$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.342,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No40c155$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.663,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.761,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.294,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.11,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.841,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No54c147.1$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.97,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No66c145.3$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.94,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed Yes45c140.54$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6711883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x7e84…6c98backed Yes28c130.68$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.83837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8db…458dbacked No45c126.04$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…fc29backed Yes37c111.26$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.092152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4409…cf5bbacked Yes46c109.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes73c105.7$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.291,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes31c104.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3922335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes68c101.41$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.772,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes32c97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5715328.1%43 W · 110 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes28c96.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.473,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c95.89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.589,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes63c92.78$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.991936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No50c84.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No51c82.27$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes72c82.08$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6820662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c79.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.132,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes39c79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.932,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c76.6$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c76.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No37c73.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.232,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes68c70$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.732,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5948…2d49backed No23c64.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155715.8%9 W · 48 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No34c64.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.531,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No47c61.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes72c60.76$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.32,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes78c60.21$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1632147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes47c60.15$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.127,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes29c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.613738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes80c57.61$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.755350.9%27 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes33c57.26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes38c56.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2427029.3%79 W · 191 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes25c56.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.211,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed Yes46c56.08$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0422959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No63c55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.652,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d8…8f53backed No56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305172.5%37 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1342…c430backed Yes31c51.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.233441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.528441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No36c47.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.116,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes54c46.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.682445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes43c46.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3482268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No71c45.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0860054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes72c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.733962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.249543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.53,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes29c39.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.381,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9635…3d8cbacked Yes77c38.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.77425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes27c37.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.385,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b14…5115backed Yes48c37.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.271442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c36.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes73c35.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.522,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80db…4a73backed Yes62c35.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.544951%25 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x324c…f39bbacked No56c31.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.661145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No47c31.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.718142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x901b…1c51backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c31.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.692,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3424…6b9fbacked Yes37c31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.53475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.855836.2%21 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes60c29.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.731,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes75c29.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.252,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No58c26.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1998565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No53c26.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89a8…2b17backed Yes79c26.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No68c25.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.121,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No57c24.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No78c24.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.982,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No65c22.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7726958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x210c…f1b9backed No55c22.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.291040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3f7…c14bbacked No73c22.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2710973.4%80 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35ae…f93abacked Yes75c20.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes68c17.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7446452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No63c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0364167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.