Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ba7c28d03d3252ff1cb03196cec7262128f3cba115a4bd4e867cbe63818b96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 9c | 6,911$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 40c | 1,236$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 462.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 298.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked No | 73c | 266.74$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed Yes | 36c | 225.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 225$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 220.34$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.51 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 209.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…cf5bbacked Yes | 24c | 202.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad2…3887backed No | 60c | 165.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 162.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 161.35$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 157.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 151.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 149.86$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 77c | 130.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 121.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 85.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 81.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 79.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 58c | 78.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 77.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 42c | 75.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa726…0dadbacked No | 66c | 75.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 70.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 59.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 55.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 68c | 54.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 37c | 53.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f86…0b92backed Yes | 35c | 50.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 79c | 49.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 53c | 48.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 42c | 47.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 39.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 35.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 34.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 46c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 29.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed No | 61c | 28.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 27.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 70c | 26.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 39c | 25.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 42c | 25.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 25.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 23.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 71c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 55c | 21.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 67c | 20.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 19.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 61c | 17.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 80c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.