CS2 · resolved market
Will Furia win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc03a0fbb8d13edd1399f8f6526a5107dd1ec1d3991060897fdccd0efe96e8be3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 35c | 1,200$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 249 | 35.7%89 W · 160 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 39c | 1,070$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.99 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Yes | 10c | 764.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.43 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Yes | 44c | 507.35$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.44 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9609…29bdbacked Yes | 21c | 476.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed No | 79c | 465.63$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.85 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…5501backed Yes | 45c | 271.13$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +186%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x485f…f682backed Yes | 42c | 239.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…54bdbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 253 | 50.2%127 W · 126 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…53ffbacked Yes | 35c | 137.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 136.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0c…8d39backed Yes | 35c | 128.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…1487backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2033…7581backed Yes | 11c | 119.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 10c | 103.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74c7…7974backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ef…252ebacked Yes | 44c | 89.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…48c0backed Yes | 45c | 74.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 137 | 40.9%56 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…14f1backed Yes | 39c | 69.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…4539backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc39c…b7c1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 66c | 17.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Furia win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament?this page
- Will 3DMAX win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament?No won
- Will Astralis win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament?No won
- Will MOUZ win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament?No won
- Will Team Falcons win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament?No won
- Will Team Spirit win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament?No won
- Will Team Vitality win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament?No won
- Will The MongolZ win the Intel Extreme Masters Chengdu Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.