MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc03e1be335ceb76eed18be91e69150b77a6ac785cab7b4d9a26ff61c137ac48c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Under | 66c | 600$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Under | 64c | 528.52$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.25 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 34c | 395.05$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.73 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Over | 35c | 265.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.3 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Over | 45c | 209.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Over | 35c | 205$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.15 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…3238backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 47c | 70.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 64c | 57.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…5364backed Over | 40c | 52.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…3366backed Under | 58c | 51.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 39c | 27.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Over | 39c | 25.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a9…c179backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Reds vs. DodgersDodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.