MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8922ad2d6db190e8e2de177e97c6c304aeaa7e386f6879cc30b4bc130dec64c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0549…c052backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 8,510$4,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,680.77 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 4,418$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.9 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 3,178$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.2 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 3,036$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 2,221$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.61 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 900$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 729.6$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.6 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 666$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.98 | 666 | 45.5%303 W · 363 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 643.48$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.48 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.9wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 624.27$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.94 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 453.4$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 425.53$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 358.54$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.78 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 337.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.37 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 255$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 209$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 209$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…5364backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 190$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 148.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…04f5backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 105.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…3238backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…5058backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e7…c669backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 48cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 39.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d3bebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e42dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 20.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Reds vs. DodgersDodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.