Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc044c6e20f16903b5d307c786f7900917fdad7db76db0bbf7af15d28ed07c585
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 39c | 520.05$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.92 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 510.52$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 59c | 500.63$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.58 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 412.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 312$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 74c | 281.81$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.34 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 72c | 240.63$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 186.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 63c | 153.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 145.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed No | 70c | 138.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 34c | 133.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 131.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 75c | 130.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked No | 77c | 126.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 39c | 122.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 119.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 114.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 72c | 106.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 45c | 103.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed No | 70c | 103.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 33c | 98.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 25c | 96.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 42c | 92.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 73c | 83.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 45c | 80.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 28c | 80.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 79.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 30c | 70.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed No | 71c | 67.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 22c | 66.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 42c | 60.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 56.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…9ff4backed No | 72c | 47.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 44.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…c018backed Yes | 34c | 44.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 73c | 43.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 37c | 42.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 28c | 41.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 59c | 40.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 38c | 40.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 30c | 39.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 47c | 38.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 32c | 37.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 58c | 33.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 52c | 29.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c2…9516backed No | 75c | 29.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 68c | 28.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…5a3ebacked Yes | 38c | 27.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 61c | 24.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 58c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 62c | 24.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 57c | 23.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 60c | 22.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 72c | 21.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ee…d06abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1c…05cfbacked Yes | 63c | 19.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x525c…23acbacked No | 65c | 19.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 18.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 62c | 16.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x60ea…226bbacked No | 75c | 15.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…041fbacked No | 70c | 15.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…b345backed No | 75c | 15.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…8fd5backed No | 69c | 14.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.