Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c7b01cf1fdb839dca35b7e7fe1dfeedde8ab90b7a2a3f24619eaaacdccbc18b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 2c | 651.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 7c | 535$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 500.23$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 59c | 497.12$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.37 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 43c | 269.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 176.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 63c | 168.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed No | 61c | 134.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 65c | 134.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 38c | 123.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 66c | 119.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 116.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 85.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 78.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 31c | 69.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 72c | 68.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 60.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 54c | 57.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 32c | 56.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 54.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 38c | 52.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 42c | 49.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 36c | 49.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked No | 58c | 47.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 51c | 45.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 48c | 42.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4926…60d5backed Yes | 32c | 38.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 54c | 38.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…b272backed No | 65c | 37.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 71c | 36.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…b32abacked Yes | 32c | 34.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c1…9422backed No | 68c | 33.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 29.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 29.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 65c | 27.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 63c | 26.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf466…fce0backed No | 68c | 23.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 57c | 18.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…7191backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on April 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.