Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc04e9fa075adaaddeec6af7e38a667ba098dfd0f351099f10be9094adcf9f51b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 493.66$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 392.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 21c | 260.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 220.04$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 189.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 172.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 169.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 13c | 155.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 70c | 132.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 119.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 18c | 114.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 16c | 100.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 13c | 100.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 39c | 77.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 72.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 64.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 38c | 54.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 53.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 32c | 49.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 48.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 22c | 47.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 36.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 35c | 32.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 32.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 30.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 61c | 22.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 67c | 16.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.