Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a760c0874e7425985382f1131adcb58c586f095c24374e2a90a5ba2518397ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 995.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 1,857 | 25.4%472 W · 1,385 L | +133.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 549.13$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.3 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 482.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,369 | 20.7%283 W · 1,086 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 63c | 328.55$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.08 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 245.59$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 220$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…d1f0backed Yes | 23c | 165.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 158.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 8c | 144.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 20c | 134.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 119$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 28c | 117.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 24c | 113.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 202 | 9.9%20 W · 182 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 105.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 781 | 55.3%432 W · 349 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 40c | 96.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 78c | 91.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 90.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 86.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…fef6backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 306 | 33.3%102 W · 204 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 20c | 59.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 56.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 55.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 53.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320e…9f45backed Yes | 28c | 50.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 33c | 45.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 79c | 40.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 38.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 80c | 37.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 55c | 36.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 54c | 35.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 34.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 34.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 47c | 31.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 52c | 30.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 63c | 27.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 26.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 79c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…a3b8backed Yes | 62c | 24.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 23.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 22.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 17.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 16.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 634 | 55.7%353 W · 281 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.