Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa6c4c2d14179ad2a418aea4dd8fc997ac630a3e542f950829f1cfdb48e1d7d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 564.05$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.17 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 291.7$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.43 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 271.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 235.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…3359backed No | 19c | 233.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 178.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 174.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 170.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 170.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 160$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 64c | 128$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 64c | 124.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 52c | 110.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 28c | 96.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 57c | 85.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 80.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 75.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 37c | 70.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 64.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 35c | 62.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 55.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 52.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 49c | 48.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 29c | 47.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 43c | 46.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 41c | 44.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 43.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 42.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 39c | 40.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 35.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 39c | 28.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…736cbacked No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.4wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 46c | 26.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes | 45c | 26.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 54c | 26.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 48c | 25.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 61c | 24.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 21.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 53c | 21.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.