Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc05feba6dfa901be59dac3ea7cc7ca8a4ef4f5a26c79cb516c52661d684f7ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 78c | 548.8$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.61 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 65c | 328.85$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.44 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 60c | 306.72$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 256.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 253.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 171.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 142.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 123.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 86.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdc…6a24backed No | 44c | 86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 64c | 84.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 30c | 83.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 30c | 79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 75c | 75.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 75.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 72.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 16c | 72.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 72.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 61.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 60.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 48c | 58.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 54.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 53.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 66c | 51.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 49.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 35c | 46.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 30c | 44.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 30c | 40.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 63c | 40.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 42c | 35.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 72c | 34.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 42c | 30.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 30.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 28.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 25.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…4633backed Yes | 42c | 25.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 17.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 13.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…9fcfbacked No | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -38%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.