Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0670c1a152559d5a67545f42086d978f9540f1b36e233688097eda1d5949e68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 305.28$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 212$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf47…9eb9backed Yes | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 55c | 194.26$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 164.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 159.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 18c | 134.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 58c | 117.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 115.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 78c | 108.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 103.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 60c | 97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 58c | 93.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 87.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 85.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 67.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 51.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 50.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 49.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 48.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 41c | 47.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 68c | 47.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 41.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 64c | 40.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 40.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 42c | 38.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 37.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 37.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…4a4bbacked Yes | 40c | 36.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 56c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ab…45bebacked No | 72c | 34.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 39c | 34.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked No | 54c | 27.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 23.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 23.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a57…d90cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 65c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.