South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Monterrey vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0a6ffe7d1057f208a8c438c5ce610aa72c9c80e75565b2192db3f05637fe7ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,874 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 23,118$17,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,852.11 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 7,938$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,985.7 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 6,565$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.5 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 2,288$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.3 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,698$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +962.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 24c | 1,275$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.31 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…618abacked Yes | 7c | 1,135$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 1,012$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.32 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 827.74$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.15 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 440$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 419.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 25c | 410.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…609fbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 25c | 352.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…c5d0backed No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 27c | 232.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 172.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 25c | 164.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 25c | 154.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…4d5fbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Yes | 26c | 126.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 125.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Yes | 25c | 111.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 25c | 100.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked No | 74c | 81.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…5760backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 24c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 27c | 55.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 25c | 54.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 52c | 50.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 35c | 46.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 120 | 65%78 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae1…7bb6backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Monterrey vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
- Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.