Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Tallon Griekspoor
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0b34832ab71ced938b6531e1b794fad1702fd47a3f14e9b0323a43f9cb70045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mannarinoof Mannarino, Griekspoor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Griekspoor | 59c | 31,335$18,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,341.87 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Mannarino | 41c | 27,096$11,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,986.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Mannarino | 42c | 11,064$4,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,417.11 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Griekspoor | 58c | 8,293$4,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,817.67 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Mannarino | 44c | 4,091$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,290.91 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Griekspoor | 58c | 3,448$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Griekspoor | 56c | 2,706$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.14 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Mannarino | 50c | 2,642$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.1 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…693fbacked Mannarino | 51c | 2,473$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Mannarino | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Mannarino | 41c | 1,993$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.58 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Griekspoor | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…3386backed Griekspoor | 55c | 1,615$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Mannarino | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Griekspoor | 46c | 1,093$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Griekspoor | 54c | 1,000$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Griekspoor | 60c | 1,000$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mannarino | 53c | 789$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.45 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Mannarino | 42c | 715$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.7 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Griekspoor | 56c | 703$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.68 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Mannarino | 43c | 700$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Griekspoor | 43c | 619.65$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.39 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Griekspoor | 57c | 604.23$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.41 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Mannarino | 41c | 600$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Griekspoor | 49c | 518.4$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.58 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Griekspoor | 51c | 507.27$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.28 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Griekspoor | 40c | 502.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Griekspoor | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Griekspoor | 49c | 459.24$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.1 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Mannarino | 41c | 450$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mannarino | 39c | 390.65$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.3 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Griekspoor | 50c | 383.62$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.62 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Griekspoor | 50c | 323.54$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Mannarino | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Griekspoor | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Griekspoor | 49c | 297.42$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Griekspoor | 8c | 274$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Griekspoor | 50c | 264.17$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mannarino | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mannarino | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Griekspoor | 57c | 232.56$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.56 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Griekspoor | 8c | 202.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Griekspoor | 45c | 196.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…e1e8backed Griekspoor | 54c | 186.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Griekspoor | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mannarino | 46c | 168.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Griekspoor | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Mannarino | 48c | 108$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Griekspoor | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 284 | 51.1%145 W · 139 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Mannarino | 61c | 99.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1448backed Griekspoor | 57c | 87.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 95 | 70.5%67 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Mannarino | 46c | 64.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…facbbacked Griekspoor | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked Griekspoor | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Griekspoor | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mannarino | 57c | 31.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c20cbacked Mannarino | 64c | 23.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.