TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Santa Cruz: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Bueno

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Matias Sotoof Matias Soto, Gonzalo Bueno
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Gonzalo Bueno12c12,540$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.128,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Gonzalo Bueno47c6,614$3,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.1437741.4%156 W · 221 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Gonzalo Bueno7c3,570$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.142,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Matias Soto43c1,634$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.6697745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Gonzalo Bueno12c1,472$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1636554.2%198 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Matias Soto78c1,298$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.234,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Matias Soto42c1,123$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.1339534.4%136 W · 259 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d8c…35b0backed Matias Soto79c1,110$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23322465.2%146 W · 78 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Gonzalo Bueno54c1,099$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.321,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked Matias Soto73c1,073$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.7121567.4%145 W · 70 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Gonzalo Bueno4c1,001$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.22,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked Matias Soto45c999.97$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.986050%30 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Gonzalo Bueno57c683.65$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.6829444.2%130 W · 164 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Gonzalo Bueno15c607.53$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.791,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Matias Soto69c576.25$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.37,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa534…c089backed Matias Soto46c519.88$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.382065%13 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked Gonzalo Bueno41c507.09$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.3718849.5%93 W · 95 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c4…0cccbacked Gonzalo Bueno20c499.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.839341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Gonzalo Bueno20c467.54$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.221,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Gonzalo Bueno21c420.18$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.441,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Gonzalo Bueno54c406.02$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.251,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Gonzalo Bueno15c369.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.111,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Matias Soto71c353.18$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9284963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Matias Soto78c305.64$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0470465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Gonzalo Bueno20c297.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.843750.3%220 W · 217 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c61…6b06backed Gonzalo Bueno57c295.66$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.532470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Gonzalo Bueno31c293.14$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.673,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa054…07c2backed Matias Soto44c265.87$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.018146.9%38 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Gonzalo Bueno55c265.36$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9525250%126 W · 126 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…b93dbacked Gonzalo Bueno55c265.36$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9511844.9%53 W · 65 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x575a…1ca2backed Matias Soto75c244.08$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.451361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Gonzalo Bueno19c218.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4836944.4%164 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e1…f17fbacked Gonzalo Bueno57c213.64$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7824463.5%155 W · 89 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Matias Soto46c210.35$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.5924747.4%117 W · 130 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Gonzalo Bueno25c201.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.84,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Matias Soto44c199.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1131,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Matias Soto79c193$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.089,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba1a…85febacked Gonzalo Bueno21c184.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.172651.8%376 W · 350 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Gonzalo Bueno55c178.53$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.191,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9e…cca3backed Gonzalo Bueno55c176.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.321856.4%123 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3b…380cbacked Gonzalo Bueno20c143.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.742740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2488…ff0ebacked Matias Soto41c134.61$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0248650.6%246 W · 240 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeefb…d11fbacked Matias Soto72c133.89$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.883762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Gonzalo Bueno17c119.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ed…72efbacked Matias Soto45c105.4$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9738754.3%210 W · 177 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a48…ba21backed Matias Soto78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223574.3%26 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Matias Soto45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9986835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc669…53eabacked Matias Soto80c98.8$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.767266.7%48 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Gonzalo Bueno17c94.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0817460.3%105 W · 69 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Gonzalo Bueno55c89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.957541.3%31 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Gonzalo Bueno33c81.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.223,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Matias Soto45c77.21$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4622755.1%125 W · 102 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe658…2c42backed Matias Soto44c71.71$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1639842.2%168 W · 230 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe31d…e7a4backed Gonzalo Bueno55c70.76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9212748.8%62 W · 65 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5172…be4abacked Matias Soto44c60.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Gonzalo Bueno56c58.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7129553.2%157 W · 138 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Matias Soto64c57.39$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.545,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c34…7a99backed Gonzalo Bueno55c53.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.198848.9%43 W · 45 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86d0…904ebacked Gonzalo Bueno36c52.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9423634.7%82 W · 154 L-37.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-45.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xb883…3994backed Matias Soto43c52.62$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3021549.8%107 W · 108 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Gonzalo Bueno35c50.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7356817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x65cf…5cdebacked Matias Soto41c49.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2522646%104 W · 122 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Matias Soto80c48.94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1091880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fad…a796backed Matias Soto61c45.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.696050%30 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Matias Soto48c43.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.526,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Matias Soto45c43.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9715948.4%77 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Gonzalo Bueno55c41.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.633,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3827…5455backed Gonzalo Bueno38c38.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Matias Soto43c36.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7758734.6%203 W · 384 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5a…724cbacked Gonzalo Bueno55c35.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4614761.2%90 W · 57 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x305b…cd21backed Gonzalo Bueno56c34.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4755059.1%325 W · 225 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Gonzalo Bueno56c34.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.472,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba8…11a2backed Gonzalo Bueno56c34.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4710063%63 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Gonzalo Bueno56c34.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4788560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x435a…21a5backed Matias Soto69c34.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.722948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b3…f8c1backed Gonzalo Bueno41c25.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2815641.7%65 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0576…9d28backed Gonzalo Bueno55c23.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1613553.3%72 W · 63 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Matias Soto63c19.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2474346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Gonzalo Bueno53c19.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.271,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…f544backed Matias Soto79c15.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.28875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28af…7de0backed Matias Soto79c13.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.824072.5%29 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.