MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c4e793c8b48bb8ce120cd509e3575d5091395b79e662c2f8ec4f184297f8bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 49c | 10,504$5,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,405.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 8,848$5,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,151.96 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47d…322bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 2,084$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 1,010$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.05 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 988.26$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.61 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 620.95$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 550.68$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.15 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 520.09$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 34c | 487.07$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…ff91backed Chicago White Sox | 45c | 384$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 360.54$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.37 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Toronto Blue Jays | 11c | 267$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Chicago White Sox | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 7c | 222$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 220$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 190$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 152.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 130.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 14c | 96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 19c | 82.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Chicago White Sox | 40c | 57.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Chicago White Sox | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 47.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 42.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 41.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 38.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 35.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox | 43c | 30.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8d…d241backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 16.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.