MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4398839674f76a40b4e7bfa0bc5589a6b8ef2f0d3999d968c0f22c660c6a031f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 18,889$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,689.02 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 12,765$5,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,607.53 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 46c | 7,500$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 54c | 6,491$3,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,986 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 56c | 4,077$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.24 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 66c | 2,002$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.58 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,774$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 1,213$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 56c | 740.74$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.93 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 46c | 631.7$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.58 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 61c | 534.69$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.78 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 533$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.85 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 525$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 495$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 397$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 53c | 348.83$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.95 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 46c | 326.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 321.01$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 29c | 300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 280$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 43c | 277.77$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Under | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 46c | 243.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 44c | 199.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 195$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 45c | 191$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 48c | 186.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 46c | 141.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 46c | 127.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 52c | 99.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 46c | 96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 55c | 87.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 54c | 56.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 44c | 53.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Under | 56c | 52.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…4dccbacked Under | 74c | 49.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…3884backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Over | 39c | 40.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 46c | 39.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…2a3bbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Over | 46c | 34.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 47c | 30.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 46c | 27.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8d…d241backed Under | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 22.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 56c | 20.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.