MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0f8d09b1bd7710c19dab064608697789f6d92a69203f06e3bad41d108ba3f0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 66c | 6,943$4,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,364.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 37c | 6,864$2,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,569.36 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Under | 34c | 2,376$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 63c | 2,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 62c | 1,263$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.88 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 66c | 800$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 63c | 659.16$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 72c | 421.01$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 34c | 299$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 64c | 220$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 34c | 209.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 183.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 76c | 179.22$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 28c | 176.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 65c | 166$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Under | 35c | 113.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 62c | 109.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 71c | 84.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Under | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 25c | 52.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Under | 34c | 48.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 65c | 40.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 77c | 23.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…0f79backed Over | 66c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.