MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b0c966d6ce3a95ec4dc6149f123adce601b5c1eb561b65be8b42db16c02e800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 54c | 5,628$3,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,032.06 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 47c | 2,819$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.93 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 48c | 2,760$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.2 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 48c | 2,760$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.2 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 2,283$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 2,058$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 50c | 1,966$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 1,629$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 54c | 1,299$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.81 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 53c | 1,085$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.54 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…c069backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Under | 54c | 929.63$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 891$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.23 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 763.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.67 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 599.99$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.99 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 53c | 585.56$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.46 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 501.93$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.04 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 493.09$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 44c | 473.43$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 48c | 419.85$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.32 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 386.5$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.71 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 345.19$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 273.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 235.73$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 221.86$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 54c | 185.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 51c | 176$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 48c | 136.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 49c | 101$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 55c | 91.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 45c | 80.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 53c | 79.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 48c | 74.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 46c | 62.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Under | 40c | 59.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 48c | 56.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 51.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 54c | 49.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 47c | 44.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 48c | 29.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 45c | 29.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 48c | 25.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 23.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 48c | 22.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 48c | 22.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 47c | 22.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 54c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.