Champions League · resolved market
Will Palmeiras vs. Al Ahly end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc135390a1bdd2b9fccd101b6da34009aa4bc1a4aca6ebaea5c6945c18001c55b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 78c | 3,028$2,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 23c | 2,231$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.89 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 24c | 2,108$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.88 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,616$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.48 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 65c | 1,044$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.85 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3de8…b979backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 78c | 929$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.95 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba6…254abacked No | 76c | 780$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 21c | 442.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 77c | 426.4$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 76c | 239.41$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…2964backed No | 76c | 220$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 77c | 116.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 25c | 100.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…3d6fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 18c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…915bbacked Yes | 23c | 69.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 69c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…1966backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…a3adbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palmeiras vs. Al Ahly end in a draw?this page
- Will Al Ahly beat Palmeiras?No won
- Will Palmeiras beat Al Ahly?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.