Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc138e4b6c3279f7afdae04c9e6658fa95e19293bbeafb4407ba7b551b1311233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 49c | 319.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.39 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No | 31c | 290.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 189.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 177.82$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 44c | 172.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 144.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 97.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 78c | 92.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 17c | 92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 84.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 75.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 67.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 59c | 60.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…f9e2backed Yes | 79c | 56.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 56.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 55.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 50c | 47.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 30c | 46.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 45c | 43.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 50c | 40.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 34c | 31.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 59c | 30.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 70c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 49c | 27.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 50c | 27.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ed…548fbacked Yes | 51c | 27.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 48c | 27.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 55c | 26.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 26.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 78c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 50c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 23.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 63c | 22.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 71c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 50c | 20.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 50c | 20.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.