NBA · resolved market
Will Justin Bieber attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc13b8a00c171060f556aa8078d5b11e9f1ad8f25e8b09de784eb8783244e1f19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 26c | 1,038$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.88 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes | 32c | 755$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 68c | 618$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.76 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed No | 74c | 506$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 26c | 436$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 74c | 431$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +117%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed No | 74c | 414$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 71c | 238$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 14c | 209$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked Yes | 73c | 68.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb388…dc58backed No | 38c | 57.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…4502backed No | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…77dcbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Justin Bieber attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?this page
- Will Adam Sandler attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?No won
- Will Cameron Brink attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?No won
- Will Donald Trump attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?No won
- Will Drake attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?No won
- Will Erika Kirk attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?No won
- Will J.D. Vance attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?No won
- Will Kai Cenat attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.