Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc142cd9635783015789be28c629894a3717ad098ecb3664aa19fa2c2012ef5aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 547.88$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 285.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 20c | 266.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 23c | 185.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 176.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 154.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 122.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 106.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 68c | 99.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 98.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 20c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 90.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 82.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…6daabacked Yes | 22c | 77.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 77.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 22c | 75.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 66.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3588…fb71backed Yes | 28c | 64.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 61.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 25c | 47.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 31c | 45.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…749ebacked Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 31.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 27.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 75c | 26.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 72c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.