Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x971fa43c5ed5e3d6e8bedf5ac4b08727308eb3ca974eef62414f8e1d359b468a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 1,001$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 28c | 877$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.09 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 792.53$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 582.12$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 67c | 213.85$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.02 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 34c | 199.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 72c | 175$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 8c | 134.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 38c | 130$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 107.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 97.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 96.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 46c | 92.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 55c | 85.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 84.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 84.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 67c | 79.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 32c | 78.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 38c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 33c | 70.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 54c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 66.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 59.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 66c | 52.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 39c | 49.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 76c | 46.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 44.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 34c | 44.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 42c | 42.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 73c | 31.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed No | 67c | 29.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 27.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 69c | 22.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 79c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 18.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 67c | 15.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 15.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.