Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc16f6a4bbe50a702e73d314760b53155dc8baea84ced48defeeaf677befb4089
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,836 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e75…4e58backed No | 40c | 42,500$16,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,992.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261f…2fa4backed Yes | 60c | 42,430$25,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,951.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 4c | 433.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 60c | 324.96$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 67c | 188$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 180.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.48 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 79c | 162.2$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 73c | 136.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 132.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 36c | 123.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 123.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 55c | 121.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 47c | 112.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 111.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 29c | 104.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 36c | 87.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 39c | 77.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 71.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 69.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 29c | 66.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 41c | 65.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked No | 21c | 64.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 59c | 64.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 62.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 58.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 55.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 30c | 54.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 24c | 54.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 56c | 53.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 52.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 74c | 51.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 40c | 50.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…71d9backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 39c | 49.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 48.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…c511backed Yes | 56c | 45.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 31c | 44.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 45c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 34.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 33c | 34.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 32.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 37c | 32.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 67c | 21.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 67c | 21.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…c0e7backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 77c | 14.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.