Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73dcdec9bc0e41160fae173138edbfe373d0acbc9c62e65776a3f0f9eaebc697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,903 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf75b…0a12backed Yes | 23c | 3,706$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba1…4ec0backed No | 77c | 1,264$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb9…a052backed No | 77c | 1,231$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…a184backed No | 77c | 1,211$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 8c | 457.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 374.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 229.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 200.06$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 21c | 196.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 187.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…c511backed Yes | 25c | 177.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 76c | 161.19$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 148.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 26c | 146.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 34c | 137.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 73c | 126.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 32c | 121.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 21c | 120.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 18c | 104.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 31c | 96.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked No | 77c | 94.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 69c | 93.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 89.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 86.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 19c | 84.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 81.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 81.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 23c | 81.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 70.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 17c | 67.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 23c | 64.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed No | 80c | 62.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 71c | 61.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed No | 77c | 52.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 29c | 48.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 31c | 45.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 40c | 44.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 43.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 37c | 40.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 34.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 34.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 33.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 77c | 31.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 29.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…c069backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 77c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.