NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Spurs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc189ced43aa92d1a2b4754d287165f3b4ec4b2e9a8cd980b9857e5079a3c444f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Wizards, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…8937backed Wizards | 12c | 2,510$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.2 | 470 | 28.1%132 W · 338 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Wizards | 6c | 1,969$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Wizards | 12c | 1,813$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.55 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Wizards | 13c | 1,445$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.3 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards | 11c | 994.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Wizards | 15c | 656.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…d110backed Wizards | 4c | 530.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…018dbacked Wizards | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 136 | 52.9%72 W · 64 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Wizards | 11c | 474.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8d…673abacked Wizards | 13c | 419.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Wizards | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Wizards | 15c | 387.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Wizards | 15c | 323.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked Wizards | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 247 | 50.6%125 W · 122 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Wizards | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 197 | 51.3%101 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068b…e4f6backed Wizards | 13c | 299.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Wizards | 9c | 269.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 613 | 36.1%221 W · 392 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Wizards | 19c | 266.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 604 | 44.2%267 W · 337 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed Wizards | 14c | 261.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…e570backed Wizards | 14c | 215.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 172 | 39%67 W · 105 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…6956backed Wizards | 14c | 213.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Wizards | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 609 | 44.8%273 W · 336 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Wizards | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 382 | 39.5%151 W · 231 L | +35.9wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Wizards | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 550 | 50.9%280 W · 270 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…52dcbacked Wizards | 12c | 177.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Wizards | 15c | 159.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 643 | 47.7%307 W · 336 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1a69backed Wizards | 18c | 141.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Wizards | 16c | 126.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…e360backed Wizards | 14c | 122.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…e248backed Wizards | 20c | 121.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 191 | 30.9%59 W · 132 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Wizards | 17c | 99.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 427 | 44.5%190 W · 237 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…04f4backed Wizards | 12c | 99.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 226 | 33.2%75 W · 151 L | +14.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…3b07backed Wizards | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5b…a6c0backed Wizards | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.